Madison, Wisconsin – April 1, 2025In a devastating blow to President Donald Trump’s second term, the Wisconsin Supreme Court election concluded Tuesday night with a decisive victory for liberal candidate Susan Crawford over conservative Brad Schimel, a Trump-endorsed contender backed by an unprecedented financial push from billionaire ally Elon Musk. The loss, in what was billed as a critical early test of Trump’s political clout, threatens to unravel key elements of his administration’s agenda and exposes vulnerabilities just months into his presidency.
Crawford’s victory preserves the court’s 4-3 liberal majority, thwarting Trump’s hopes of flipping the bench to advance conservative priorities in a pivotal swing state. With nearly $100 million poured into the race—the most expensive judicial contest in U.S. history—Musk and Trump had framed Schimel’s candidacy as a linchpin for securing favorable rulings on election laws, abortion restrictions, and congressional redistricting. Instead, the outcome signals a rejection of their influence, raising alarm bells within the administration as it braces for a cascade of political and legal setbacks.
“This is a disaster for Trump,” said political analyst Laura Hensley of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Wisconsin was supposed to be a showcase of his enduring grip on the Republican base and his ability to wield power through proxies like Musk. Losing here, despite all that money and effort, suggests his administration is on shakier ground than anyone anticipated.”
The stakes were astronomical. The Wisconsin Supreme Court is poised to rule on blockbuster cases, including a challenge to an 1849 law that could ban nearly all abortions and a potential redrawing of congressional maps that currently favor Republicans. A conservative majority might have delivered victories on both fronts, bolstering Trump’s policy goals and protecting the GOP’s razor-thin 220-213 House majority. Now, with liberals retaining control, those ambitions are in jeopardy, and Democrats are emboldened to press their advantage.
Musk, who injected over $20 million into Schimel’s campaign through his America PAC and made a high-profile appearance in Green Bay days before the election, had warned that a Crawford win could “disenfranchise” Wisconsin voters by shifting congressional districts toward Democrats. His gambit, which included controversial $1 million giveaways to voters, backfired spectacularly. Critics, including state Attorney General Josh Kaul, decried the cash handouts as voter bribery, though legal challenges failed to halt them. The public backlash, however, may have fueled turnout for Crawford, who ran on a platform of judicial independence and resistance to outside influence.
For Trump, the timing couldn’t be worse. Fresh off his November 2024 victory—where he carried Wisconsin by a razor-thin 0.9% margin—the president has struggled to translate electoral success into governing momentum. His administration’s early moves, including steep federal workforce cuts and a tariff-heavy trade policy, have sparked unease even among some Republican supporters. The Wisconsin loss amplifies those concerns, handing Democrats a narrative of resilience and exposing cracks in Trump’s coalition as the 2026 midterms loom.
“Trump’s agenda just hit a brick wall,” said Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki. “This isn’t just about one court seat—it’s a signal that voters are willing to push back against his overreach. If he can’t hold a state he won five months ago, the midterms could be a bloodbath for Republicans.”
The fallout extends beyond Wisconsin. With the GOP clinging to a fragile House majority, the prospect of a liberal court redrawing maps could cost them seats, imperiling Trump’s legislative priorities like tax cuts and immigration crackdowns. Meanwhile, Schimel’s defeat undermines the administration’s strategy of leveraging judicial appointments to cement power, a tactic that proved effective during Trump’s first term.
Inside the White House, aides are reportedly scrambling to reassess their approach. Trump, who took the unusual step of joining a tele-town hall to boost Schimel, has yet to comment publicly on the loss. Sources close to the administration suggest he views it as a personal betrayal by Wisconsin voters, a sentiment that could fuel a more combative stance in the months ahead.
For now, the Wisconsin debacle stands as a stark warning: even with vast resources and a loyal base, Trump’s grip on power is far from absolute. As Crawford prepares to take her seat, the administration faces an uphill battle to salvage its early momentum—and a sobering reminder that the road to 2026 just got a lot rougher.
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